Solar in Pakistan has never moved in a straight line, but the last 19 months have been unusually volatile even by that standard. Import volumes surged to record highs, then collapsed almost as fast, before settling into a slower, steadier climb. Along the way, the panels themselves quietly changed i.e. bigger, more efficient, and pricier than what the market was buying a year earlier. Here’s what the import data actually shows, and why it matters.

A Market That Overheated, Then Cooled

Consignment-level customs data covering every solar panel shipment into Pakistan from January 2025 through July 2026 tells a story in three distinct phases.

Figure 1: Total GW imported vs. average landed USD/Watt, Jan-25 to Jul-26.

Full-year 2025 imports came to 21.44 GW, worth roughly $1.94 billion, but that total hides a dramatic spike. Volumes started the year at a fairly ordinary 1.66 GW in January, then nearly tripled to 4.99 GW in April, the single largest month anywhere in the dataset, before settling back into the 2 to 2.7 GW range through the summer. That April surge lined up almost exactly with the cheapest panel prices of the entire window, around $0.078 per watt, and with growing signals that NEPRA was preparing to overhaul its net metering rules, enough on its own to send buyers rushing to purchase panels and lodge applications before any new framework took effect.

What followed was a sharp pullback. From August through December 2025, monthly imports fell nearly without interruption: 1.02 GW, then 1.46 GW, then 1.13 GW, followed by a striking 0.22 GW in November and just 0.13 GW in December, a 95% drop from the April peak. Part of this was a classic post-boom correction, as importers and installers worked through inventory built up during the rush; part of it was the market waiting to see exactly how NEPRA’s revised regulations, formally notified in February 2026, would reshape the economics of new installations.

2026 has told a calmer story, a patient, month-by-month recovery rather than a return to boom conditions. Imports climbed from 0.34 GW in January to 1.78 GW by July, bringing the year-to-date total to 6.78 GW, worth about $762 million. That’s solid growth, but it’s worth noting what it isn’t: nowhere near the April 2025 peak, and arriving at noticeably higher prices than a year before. Average landed cost has risen from roughly $0.09/Watt in 2025 to about $0.11/Watt in 2026 so far, a reversal of the falling-price trend the market had gotten used to, most likely reflecting a mix of rupee depreciation and a shift toward more expensive, higher-output panels.

The Panels Themselves Are Changing

That last point is worth its own look, because it’s easy to miss inside the volume numbers: Pakistan isn’t just importing different quantities of solar panels, it’s importing different kinds of panels.

Figure 2: Share of import volume by panel wattage segment, 2025 vs. 2026 (Jan–Jul).

In 2025, the market ran heavily through mid-range 550–599W panels, which alone accounted for more than half of all import volume. That segment has since given up 16.5 percentage points of share, with every wattage class above it picking up the slack, most notably 600–649W panels, now at 35.2%, alongside faster-growing niches like 650–699W and 750W+. Taken together, panels rated 600W or higher now make up 55.8% of imports, up from 42.1% a year earlier. This tracks a broader global shift toward larger wafers and more efficient cell technology i.e. TOPCon, bifacial modules, M10/G12 formats, that squeeze more output from the same physical footprint. For installers, it means adjusting mounting structures and string designs that were built around 550W assumptions. For consumers, it means a given roof can now produce meaningfully more power than it could two years ago.

Reading the Data Together

Line the numbers up and a coherent picture emerges. The extraordinary rush in early 2025 looks like a market pulling demand forward while panels were cheap and the regulatory ground was still stable; the sharp collapse that followed was the market working through that inventory while it waited on NEPRA’s new rules. The steadier climb through 2026, even against rising prices, suggests genuine, durable demand rather than a one-off spike. Pakistani consumers are still buying solar, just at a more measured pace and with a clearer sense of the new regulatory landscape. The global backdrop hasn’t made things easier either. The Strait of Hormuz crisis earlier in 2026 briefly sent international oil and gas prices sharply higher, a reminder that Pakistan’s import-heavy power sector remains exposed to shocks well beyond its own borders, and one more reason self-generated solar power continues to hold its appeal.

None of this makes solar a less compelling option; if anything, the opposite. Grid tariffs keep climbing, and global energy volatility keeps underlining why energy self-sufficiency has value that goes beyond any single bill. For consumers weighing a system in the months ahead, the practical takeaway is straightforward: expect to pay somewhat more per watt than buyers did a year or two ago, expect that money to buy more powerful panels than it used to, and factor in the current NEPRA rules for new installations before finalising any purchase.

Data source: Consignment-level Pakistan customs import records, January 2025–July 2026 (Pakistan Solar Association internal analysis).